How do Fed balance-sheet runoff, Treasury issuance, reserves, and market intermediation move together?

When the Fed lets Treasuries roll off its balance sheet, someone else must hold them. Meanwhile, the ON RRP facility — which once absorbed $2.5 trillion of excess liquidity — has drained to near zero. These two forces define the pressure on the private sector.

The ON RRP facility acted as a liquidity buffer during early QT. As that buffer drains, the system becomes more sensitive to the same amount of runoff or cash-balance pressure.

These windows separate reserve-drain mechanics from Treasury cash management. ON RRP is daily; H.4.1 balance-sheet fields are carried forward between release dates so the debt-ceiling episodes can be read on a day-by-day clock, then cross-checked against the Daily Treasury Statement below.

Net private duration supply tracks how much duration the private sector must absorb: coupon issuance + SOMA runoff − buybacks. Treasury’s issuance mix can offset or amplify that burden even when the overall deficit is unchanged.

This dashboard separates reserve conditions, duration burden, and intermediation capacity.

Primary dealers are the first line of absorption. Dealer inventories show the front-line balance-sheet response before the sector appendix broadens the view.

This appendix extends the dealer view to published quarterly holder sectors. It tracks how much of the Treasury stock sits with households, banks, money funds, mutual funds, dealers, rest of world, and other private sectors.

This appendix uses realized auction settlements rather than refunding guidance. It shows how much issuance actually came as bills, fixed-rate coupons, and FRNs, plus how the fixed-rate coupon mix shifted across tenors.

This appendix aligns weekly repo spreads and Fed-pressure measures around actual refunding weeks, then compares those windows with quarter-specific placebo weeks. It is meant to separate timing from the broader quarterly state.

Repo spreads measure the financing cost of Treasury intermediation relative to the Fed’s administered rates. As buffers drain and dealer balance sheets fill, this is where pressure becomes visible.

These tables summarize how the same variables look across major Fed balance-sheet regimes and selected episode windows.

These notes summarize the main construction choices, caveats, and reproducibility details behind the public bundle.

These regressions estimate statistical relationships in the published quarterly and weekly samples.