Evidence Hierarchy & Claim Boundary
This project maintains an explicit boundary between what the current evidence can and cannot support. The sections below separate headline measurement, reduced-form pricing, and bounded causal evidence.
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Current State
High-level status of each research lane, sourced from backend artifact metadata.
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Treasury Maturity Composition
The headline measurement object. Official quarterly financing data is reconstructed from Treasury auction settlements and QRA documents. The Maturity-Tilt Flow measures coupon shortfall relative to an 18% bill-share baseline—positive values mean more bill-heavy financing.
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Transmission Mechanism
Two headline channels through which maturity composition may affect markets: the bills/reserves/ON RRP substitution channel (plumbing) and the broader public duration supply framework.
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Pricing: Rates & Term Premium
Reduced-form pricing regressions linking maturity composition to long rates and term premia. This layer is published as supporting/provisional evidence—not a settled structural claim.
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Bounded QRA Causal Lane
A narrower, bounded supporting lane. The event-causal surface is currently a small post-2022Q3 financing pilot—not a settled full-sample design. This section is separate from the broader pricing results and should be read as supporting rather than headline evidence.
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Methods, Provenance & Data Status
This site reads only from published backend artifacts. No raw or interim data is
accessed by the frontend. All outputs are regenerated from source via make regenerate.
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Supporting Extensions
Supplementary datasets providing context on investor composition, dealer positioning, and money market fund holdings. These are supporting status surfaces, not headline empirical conclusions.
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